March-May period likely to be hotter than normal: IMD

NEW DELHI, FEB 28 (AGENCIES) | Publish Date: 2/28/2020 12:45:04 PM IST

The summer months from March to May are poised to be hotter than normal, a forecast by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Friday.

The forecast indicates that the MAM (March-May) season averaged temperatures are likely to be at least half a degree hotter than normal over northwest, west and central India and some parts of south India. The season averaged maximum temperature is likely to be warmer than normal in Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, West Rajasthan and Arunachal Pradesh. 
It is likely to be warmer than normal by over 0.5C to <1C over Jammu and Kashmir, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi (HCD), west Uttar Pradesh, east Rajasthan, east and west Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, sub Himalayan West Bengal, Gujarat, Saurashtra and Kutch, Konkan and Goa, central Maharashtra, Marathawada, Vidharbha, north interior Karnataka, coastal Karnataka, Rayalaseema and Kerala. 
Above normal heat wave conditions are also likely in the core heat wave (HW) zone during the season (March-May), the weather department said.
The core heat wave zone covers the States of Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Delhi, Uttarakhand, Haryana, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Odisha and Telangana and parts of Maharashtra and coastal Andhra Pradesh.
Rest of the country is likely to experience near normal maximum temperatures, the IMD said.
Since 2016, the IMD has been issuing seasonal forecast outlooks over the country for both hot and cold weather seasons based on predictions from the Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecasting System (MMCFS) Model.
The seasonal temperature forecast outlook for the period of March to May 2020 has been prepared using MMCFS simulations based on the initial conditions of February.
Key to timely monsoon: A hot summer, experts say, is a key factor to a timely monsoon. However, the impact of a warming ocean and its impact on the monsoon is likely to be better apparent around April when the IMD issues its first forecast for the monsoon.
The southwest monsoon in 2019 (June to September) delivered 10 per cent above average rainfall in the country, the highest in 25 years. In 1994, the rainfall was 110 per cent during the June-September period. Before that, more than 10 per cent above average rainfall was witnessed in 1990 (119 per cent).


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