Has India become the global hub of Covid-19?

Spl. Correspondent/IANS NEW DELHI, AUG 16 | Publish Date: 8/16/2020 12:26:10 PM IST

In what can be a matter of concern, India has left the US and Brazil behind, as far as its seven-day average of daily new coronavirus cases are concerned. Since the pandemic broke out, this has happened for the first time. What does it mean? In simpler words, it suggests that for a straight week, India has consistently reported more new cases every day than the other two front-running nations.

If numbers are any evidence, then Johns Hopkins University’s Coronavirus Resource Center indicates that on August 11, India had a weekly average of over 60,000 new cases each day. That was way over what the other two -- US and Brazil -- recorded.

According to renowned cardiologist, former IMA presidnet and current president of Confederation of Medical Association of Asia and Oceania (CMAAO), Dr. KK Agarwal said that the doubling time by October, India will be number 2.

What’s more, that even as the US graph is coming down and Brazil has found a plateau, India seems to be on a gravity-defying spree. If numbers are anything to go by as far as indications of what is in store for the immediate future, India is in for a rough ride.

Dr Randeep Guleria, renowned pulmonologist and director of All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS) maintained that even after the rapidly rising coronavirus numbers, COVID-19 cases are yet to peak in India. Dr Guleria said, “These are trying times. It has tested the resilience of the nation. We have not reached the peak or started plateauing as far as cases are concerned.”

India’s doubling rate every 24 days is a stark contrast against every 47 days in Brazil and an even envious 65 days in the US, where the graph has already started to come down. The longer the doubling rate period grows, the better as it is a sign of having a grip over the pandemic. While the US has been successful in increasing the doubling period quite fast which is reflected in its overall Covid-19 performance, as of now, India is visibly struggling to do so.

If that was not bad news enough, India is all set to cross what was once the coronavirus peak of the US and cited by many in India to make a point how India was faring better than the US. That peak of the US came on July 22 when it hit a weekly average of over 67,000 new cases. India is all set to cross that record.

Meanwhile, India’s mortality rate has been better than the two. But the trend by Johns Hopkins University shows Brazil’s daily death rate has stabilised, while the US’s daily death rate is slowly coming down. Meanwhile, as far as India goes, it is simply going up. However, India is still behind the US and Brazil as far as the accumulated death counts are concerned.

According to the Health Ministry’s website, at the time this report was filed, India’s Covid fatalities stood 49,980, just 20 short of 50,000. So far only the US, Brazil and Mexico have crossed 50,000 mark.

With the world’s highest seven-day average of daily new cases and upwardly moving graph of fatality figures, India is increasingly appearing to be the global hub of coronavirus.


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